A Look Back on the Lake Tahoe Market in 2024
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As we turn the calendar to a new year, we'd like to take this chance to wish all of you a happy, healthy and prosperous 2025!
Looking back on 2024, the Lake Tahoe real estate market continued to trend back towards the historical average for transaction volume, with 315 transactions (Single-Family and Condo/Townhome properties from Kings Beach to Rubicon Bay). Though only a 1% increase YoY, this was the second consecutive year of sales growth coming off the recent low in 2022, when only 287 properties transferred. Historically, we've seen an average of 370 properties transfer per year on the North and West Shores in the the Tahoe Sierra MLS. In addition to an increase in sales volume, both Average and Median Sales Price registered YoY gains, with Average Sales Price coming in at $1,605,000 (up 14%) while the Median Sales Price set a new record at $1,075,000 (up 4.5%). Simply put, despite an increase in inventory and an increase in Days on Market, prices continued to rise as buyers focused their attention on newer, turnkey properties that came with higher price tags but fewer financial 'unknowns' than the properties in need of additional capital expense for remodel or renovation..
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Looking at the Lakefront market specifically, we saw 15 Single-Family Lakefront properties transfer in 2024 in our MLS, up 36% YoY. This was a welcome change after back to back years of record low transaction volume. 2024 was defined by a burst of activity on listings priced between $10,000,000 - $20,000,000 during Q3, particularly on the West Shore. While Q's 1, 2 & 4 trended in-line with recent years on transaction volume, Q3 doubled YoY, from 4 sales in 2023 to 8 sales in 2024. These 8 sales had an Average sales price of $11,785,000 and the Median sales price was a shocking $13,825,000, a new record for Median sales price in Q3. Looking at the full year, Median sales price also set a new record at $8,200,000. While these price increases are encouraging for current owners, it should be noted that 2024 was the second consecutive year the Tahoe California Lakefront market failed to produce a sale over $20,000,000. Many of the listings priced above $20,000,000 have now spent consecutive summer's on the market without entering into contract, and it remains unknown how that will affect lakefront pricing heading into 2025. There are some truly wonderful estate properties available north of $20,000,000 (some off-market for winter which will be returning in the Spring), and if aggressive pricing adjustments are needed in order to generate demand, it could reset the pricing expectations of buyers in the Lakefront Market. Motivated buyers should take note!
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While the region navigates the remaining winter months, we anticipate listing activity will remain limited until we see warmer temperatures and longer days in the months of May and June.
Considering the amount of inventory that did not sell in 2024 and will likely return to the market, coupled with the typical listing activity we see each spring and summer, we expect more pressure on prices than we have seen in the past. We anticipate demand will remain high for newer turnkey homes, but the market as a whole may see pricing stagnate or dip as some of the lingering inventory reduces pricing until they see demand.
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